The rating upgrade is based on TUI’s sound operating performance in 2024, exceeding S&P’s base-case expectations, with revenue and EBITDA growing versus 2023. S&P anticipates further earnings growth in 2025, based on solid pricing and summer bookings, as well as meaningful dividends from TUI’s joint ventures. TUI’s free operating cash flow generation after leases turned positive in 2024 and S&P expects it will continue to generate modestly, strengthening liquidity and reducing reliance on its revolving credit facility during the winter season.
The stable outlook reflects S&P’s view that TUI will continue executing its strategic initiatives and that its sizable joint ventures will increase dividend payments, thereby improving scale, and resulting in sustainably higher margins, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. Absent common dividends, S&P expects this to result in stronger credit metrics.
The rating upgrade reflects TUI’s better than Moody’s expected results in fiscal year 2024 leading to improved credit metrics and cash flow, driven by growth across all business segments.
The rationale highlights the increase in bookings per Q1 2025, indicating resilient customer demand despite challenging macroeconomic conditions in TUI's main source markets. The delivery of new vessels, hotel investments and TUI’s ongoing implementation of its asset-light and digitalized model are expected to support future growth.
The stable outlook reflects Moody’s expectations on TUI’s leverage, on the on-going positive free cash flow, and that TUI will maintain solid liquidity throughout the year. metrics targets over the near future.
The rating reflects TUI's leading market position and strong brand recognition in the European and international tourism industry. The rating agency also emphasises TUI's conservative debt coverage ratio.
In addition, Fitch recognizes that TUI operates across the whole tourism value chain and profits from the integration of its business segments. Furthermore the agency highlights the differentiation and diversification benefits from the vertical integration of hotels, cruises, airlines and activities.